According to @rovercrc, a green September for Bitcoin signals an always mega bullish Q4 for BTC. Source: @rovercrc on X. Historical BTC-USD data show Q4 outcomes vary across cycles and are not uniformly mega bullish. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. In 2020 Q4, BTC rose from roughly 10,800 dollars on October 1 to about 29,000 dollars on December 31, near 170 percent higher. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. In 2022 Q4, BTC fell from roughly 19,400 dollars on October 1 to about 16,500 dollars on December 31, around 15 percent lower. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. In 2021 Q4, BTC finished only modestly higher versus late Q3 levels at roughly 7 percent, indicating variability rather than a guaranteed surge. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. Before trading on a green September narrative, validate the conditional edge by backtesting monthly BTC-USD data and measuring Q4 returns after green Septembers. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. To assess positioning and risk appetite into Q4, track CME Bitcoin futures term structure and basis as well as BTC perpetual funding rates and open interest concentrations. Source: CME Group data and CoinGlass derivatives metrics.

According to @rovercrc, once September turns green for Bitcoin, Q4 is always mega bullish (source: @rovercrc on X). Historical monthly return data show that since 2013, September closed green in 2013, 2016, and 2023, and in each of those years BTC finished Q4 higher overall, with strong October–November performance (source: CoinGlass Bitcoin Monthly Returns). This is a small sample of three occurrences, so traders should treat the pattern as a conditional seasonality edge rather than a guarantee (source: CoinGlass Bitcoin Monthly Returns). A valid setup requires a confirmed September monthly close above August on BTCUSD to classify September as green before applying the Q4 seasonality bias (source: TradingView BTCUSD monthly data). If confirmed, the historical tendency favors long exposure into October–November while managing risk, as these months have been among BTC’s stronger periods historically (source: CoinGlass Bitcoin Monthly Returns).